Archive for the 'Investment' Category

15
Jan
10

Earnings Quality

Here’s an article I read in MyPaper January 11, 2010 in Singapore. It is titled ‘Why all earnings are not equal’—an interview with Robert Olstein (Olstein All-Cap Value Fund) by Gretchen Morgenson for New York Times (I suppose NYT means that =P ).

And I find this a coincidence. I was recently speaking with Jackson, an friend of my sister. And he was talking to me about investments (more like me picking his brain). One of the things he mentioned is earnings quality.

Earnings (and profits) is just a number. It can be manipulated, defined, reviewed, re-defined, rounded off, obscured, obsfucated, etc. The information and the source of this earnings define its quality.

One of the most common example:
You take a look at the earnings of a company, and you see that this year there’s quite a sharp increase in earnings. This would look out of place when compared to previous years. So, you read the annual report/news in more detail and found that the company has just sold an asset (a building, land, factory, its operations, a subsidiary, etc). This means that this year’s earnings does not reflect the true business earnings. This is nothing bad. The analyst just needs to be aware.

Another type of obsfucation is the EBITDA. EBITDA = earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortization. Amortization = depreciation of non-tangible assets. I think it is bullcrap. All I know is that it does not reflect the actual earnings (or profit) of the company, and it’s useless except for obsfucation. Apparently, it is used by tech companies because they typically have very high cost of operation. And EBITDA is used to give a positive effect. Pffft…

The 2 scenarios below are sneakier. But can be easily spotted by checking the disparities between its earnings and its excess cash flow.

1. from Vincent (wshiong.blogspot.com)
The articles mentioned that this disparity can show up in the ways companies account for capital expenditures. Certain assets in a company can depreciate over the years. To increase the earnings (& profits), a company can manipulate the amount of depreciation. For example: KNM listed in Bursa Malaysia. Apparently, in order to plump up its earnings, it changed the depreciation of its assets from 99 years to 999 years. This would reduce the annual depreciation, and thus increase the earnings.
I told you these guys are sneaky. The article says: “One way to assess the accuracy of management’s estimates is to compare, over time, how much a company spends on new plant and equipment and how much it deducts in depreciation each year.”

2. from Jackson
A company (lets call it Company A) can also sign an agreement with another company (Company B). The agreement says that Company B agrees to buy 100k of products from Company A. Since this is considered a business done, it is listed in the earnings report as receivables. However, this deal is done near the end of the financial of Company A. And once the financial year is over and annual report done, they will terminate the agreement.
However, this ‘transaction’ will show up in the cash flow as a discrepancy because the amount received does not match the earnings. I mean, seriously, Company B wouldn’t be that crazy to actually give Company A money for a fake show.

For conclusion,
I’m gonna quote the article:
Some of the discrepancies that emerge can be temporary, cased by the lag time between an initial investment and subsequent write-downs for depreciation.

Companies in a growth phase, for instance, will show greater capital expenditures than depreciation as they increase investments in plant and equipment.

Consistent gulfs between capital spending and depreciation should concern investors. “You have to reconcile the differences, or the market will do it for you.”

16
Sep
08

KLCI in vomit blood

Small talk…
My posting of Martin Niemöller’s When They Came proved to be prophetic. =)

________________________________________

As expected, KLCI lost slightly less than 1 pint of blood (out of 8. I got my own cacat calculations lah). Serious enough to be admitted. But far from dying. And as of today, it lost another 1 and a half pint more blood.

Lots of ‘experts’ in various internet forums are now saying the the full effect of the sub-prime crisis is being felt now… you know lah, the Americans and their complicated financial systems and creative financing and labyrinthine derivatives… sh!t like this is simply waiting to happen.
If it’s complicated, confusing and in Greek, sh!t will happen. If I can’t understand it, it’s not worth it.

Malaysian’s situation is made worse by the stupiak political scene. We’ve been on autopilot since the day Pak Lah became da man. I’m not sure where our country is headed. I can’t feel the vibrance of development in the air.

The KLCI apparently have been dropping just a wee bit faster than expected. So lots of people have been flip-flopping their position of when best to enter the market. The parameters change, the strategy have to change to adapt to it.

I’m beginning to wonder… if all these have less to do with how low KLCI will drop, and more to do with time factor. It just takes time to correct itself and recover. It certainly takes time for our political brouhaha to play out and make a mess out of itself.

So it’s back to more waiting as the economy and stock market searches for a direction. Maybe I should start looking into investing in the US.

In the mean time, the best bet now is to put your money in mutual funds ( <– S. Dali suggest using EPF to invest, a smart suggestion which I didn’t think off). Do a standing instruction with the bank to do monthly investments. Use this consistent investment to average out the crazy market movement (which has no direction <–this is worse than crazy). I know this is a blatant self-promotion… I’m a Public Mutual agent after all =P . But trust me, this is a rare opportunity… it’ll turn out to be gold in the future (well, unless Public Mutual gulung tikar).

the INvestor/

30
Aug
08

KLCI naik 30 points

WTF?! This is crazy. Like a freak of nature.
Is this a bull trap, or is this for real?

I can’t believe it. By noon, it was already up 20+ points. At the end of the day, dah naik 30+ points. I had expected the market to react positively toward Budget 2009, especially so after so much negativity for quite some time. Tak sangka naik so much in anticipation of a so-so budget. Seriously, our bourse is so ‘Malaysia Boleh’. I guess people expect Pak Lah to give out lots of goodies to ampu the rakyat.

Let me hazard a prediction…
KLCI will hold around the same level on Tuesday with lots of profit taking. On Wednesday, drop around 10 points. After that, market behaves as usual.

I bought YTLPOWR-WB at 0.470. Seeing that it naik to 0.525… a bit tak boleh tahan. So I put in my order to sell at 0.555. I d@mn greedy wei. Highest it went was 0.540. If I can sell for 0.555, then can makan Dragon-i, aye? Let’s hope I get to sell it at my greedy price on Tuesday. Then hope it jatuh gila-gila so that I can bottom fish. Nyek nyek nyek!




Twitter of a Cereal Killer

  • I love Dropbox because it is easy to use, easy to share stuff, easy to upload photos from my phone. db.tt/p5VJ3PCt 3 years ago
  • @BFMradio charcoal tab=activated carbon which absorbs toxins. Charred food are not carbon, they are carcinogenic chem eg HCA, acrylamide. 4 years ago
  • @BFMradio Great job, Boey. Love your comic! 5 years ago
  • @BFMradio Mira:the natural T in women tak cukup to turn u into Arnold. If u train hard enough, u'd probably look like a gymnast. =) 5 years ago
  • Bulgarian split squat is the most taxing exercise I've had to endure. It's a battle! 8 years ago
  • Hangzhou-lites go for IV drip during hi fever or sorethroat. -_-" Aiyoh, just drink lotsa 100 Plus and gargle saline water lah! Duh! 8 years ago
  • Got an earful from my superior. My right ear (was on the phone) is still ringing w/ her voice. Is it ok to hope that I get fired soon? LOL! 8 years ago
  • Just came back from HZ Hash Hound Harriers. Woooo, that was fun! I should so join again next week. 8 years ago

iamyuanwu’s fitness

Simplefit Level 6 day 3 = 14min 12s (12 Sep, Fri)

Hundred Pushups = Week 3 day 3 (13 Sep, Tue)

Stronglift 5x5 = temporary hiatus. Someone help me kick start plz, I mustn't waste the free Fitnesss First membership!

BN/UMN0 pisses me off!


Sep 05 BN MPs go 'study tour' to prevent them from jumping ship. X^D Stupiak tactic.
Sep 04 DrM 老马's seditious blog post <--click) inciting Malays to go amok. Told you DrM is evil.
Aug 29 Ahmad Ismail called me a bl00dy pendatang & do not deserve equal treatment. WTF?!

Lies... Damned lies... and Statistics

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